Nigeria election 2023: Tinubu rises from ashes of opposition splits

ArtmotionMarch 2, 2023

0 0 12 minutes read

AFP

By Nduka OrjinmoBBC News, Abuja

Nigerian President-elect Bola Tinubu would most likely have lost the election had it been held last year – before the main opposition Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) split three ways.

The combined votes of his three closest rivals – one member and two former members of PDP – would have been enough for a comfortable return to power for the party, as together they received 60% of the vote.

The PDP's Atiku Abubakar got 29% of ballots cast, the Labour Party's Peter Obi got 25% and Rabiu Kwankwaso of the NNPP got 6%, while Nigeria's next president was elected with 37%.

It would have been easy for a united PDP to capitalise on an electorate tired of the economic hardship, widespread insecurity and record inflation experienced under outgoing President Muhammadu Buhari and the governing All Progressives Congress (APC).

The APC is the fruit of Mr Tinubu's hard work and he is known as a "political godfather" – helping put Mr Buhari in office eight years ago.

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Yet 12 months is a long time in politics – and the 70-year-old former Lagos governor, aided by his party machinery, eased to victory.

Reinvention goes wrong

It was billed as the most competitive presidential election in Nigeria since the end of military rule in 1999.

This was because a third candidate came to the fore. For the last two decades, Nigeria has largely been a two-party state at the national level.

Supporters gesture next to the banner of the candidate of the opposition Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) Atiku Abubakar during a campaign rally in Kano, Nigeria - 9 February 2023

Though there has been a plethora of third-party candidates seeking the presidency in that time, no-one has been able to truly make waves like Mr Obi, who excited young voters.

He was vice-presidential candidate for the PDP in 2019 – and his old party had ruled Nigeria for the first 16 years after the return to democracy.

At the time it was a truly national party that connected with millions countrywide, though its strongholds were in the south, where it was assured of votes in every election cycle.

After the PDP experienced its second loss at national polls, in 2019 under Mr Abubakar, it was clear it needed to reinvent itself to attract the millions of young Nigerians who felt frozen out of the political system and frustrated by a political class they saw as responsible for the country's lack of progress.

Religious and ethnic sensitivities also play a role in a country split between a largely Muslim north and mainly Christian south with hundreds of different ethnic groups

Many southerners felt that the PDP had taken their loyalty for granted after it opted to throw open its presidential ticket to candidates from all areas of Nigeria, instead of confining it to applicants from the south-east – the one area of the country yet to produce an executive leader.

This allowed Mr Abubakar, its major financier and a Muslim former vice-president from the north-east, to run once more.

Mr Obi, a Christian who hails from the south-east and had served two terms as governor of the Anambra state, left the PDP with days to the party primary.

Five powerful southern governors also refused to back Mr Abubakar in the election – it is thought that some of them worked for his opponents. While Mr Kwankwaso, a northern politician popular in Kano, Nigeria's second-largest city, broke ranks and went to the NNPP to get a shot at the presidency.

Though the PDP has now reclaimed some northern states it lost to the APC in 2019, it has bled heavily in its traditional southern strongholds, where Mr Obi did extremely well.

Why was voter turnout so low?

This worked in the APC's favour, which stuck to a strategy that has served it well in the past – securing the votes in its bases in the north and west.

It was helped by voting day problems in opposition strongholds, where election officials often arrived late – in some places three-and-a-half hours after polls should have closed. This left many voters effectively disenfranchised.

Supporters of Nigeria's Labour Party (LP) during a march for the LP presidential candidate Peter Obi in Abuja, Nigeria -18 February 2023

Many excited first-time voters who had arrived hours before dawn were unable to cast their votes because of the late arrival of election materials.

"I arrived at my polling unit at 8:00 but until 11:00 I did not see anyone," a first-time voter at a polling unit along the Airport Road in the capital, Abuja, told the BBC after eventually managing to vote.

In the southern city of Lagos, where many young, educated residents were backing Mr Obi, BBC reporters met many people who arrived early but left after waiting hours for polling officers who never showed up.

In some polling units with thousands of registered voters, voting did not start until 13:00 – one-and-a-half hours before polls were due to close, and despite the extension of voting in such places, many did not vote as darkness fell and security officials had to leave. It is impossible to know many potential votes were lost as a result.

At some voting centres in opposition strongholds, voting did not take place at all and there were also cases of ballot-box snatching, violence and voter intimidation in known opposition states in the south such as Rivers, Lagos and Delta.

Election monitoring group Yiaga, said only 10% of polling units in the south-east and 29% in the south had started accreditation and voting by 09:30 local time on Saturday – an hour after polls opened.

Some 63% of polling units in the south-west and 42% of polling units in the north-west, known APC strongholds, had started voting at that time.

International observer missions from the NDI-IRI and the EU have described the process as lacking transparency.

In the end, turnout was just 27% and Mr Tinubu received 8.8 million ballots – less than 10% of the 93 million registered voters.

Voter apathy is not thought to have been as much of a factor as problems on voting day.

It may also be that the number of people on the voter's roll is too high – as it is not automatically updated when people die or leave the country.

Furthermore, the introduction of a new electronic voter system known as Bvas was intended to stop people voting multiple times. If this worked and yet there were still duplicate entries on the voters' register, this would result in a low turnout figure.

Another factor could be the recent cash crisis and fuel scarcity in parts of the country that made it difficult for people to travel to vote.

In his acceptance speech, Mr Tinubu acknowledged there had been lapses in the election but said they "were relatively few in number and were immaterial to affect the outcome of this election".

Such sentiments were echoed by the Independent National Electoral Commission (Inec).

Risk pays off

Many regard Mr Tinubu as a master political strategist and given he campaigned for the presidency under the slogan: "Emi lo kan", which means "It's my turn" in Yoruba, it is possible he has been planning his ascendency for a while.

All Progressives Congress (APC) party supporters celebrate in Lagos after party candidate Bola Tinubu wins Nigeria's highly disputed weekend - 1 March 2023

His APC grew out of the Alliance for Democracy (AD), which was nearly squashed 20 years ago by Olusegun Obasanjo when he was president and led the PDP.

Yet Mr Tinubu refused to join the PDP as other states and governors at the time did. Instead he used the vast resources of Lagos, the country's economic hub where he served as governor from 1999 until 2007, to build a following in the south-west.

He constantly reinvented his small party until a 2013 merger with other political parties in the north created the APC and its successful 2015 campaign brought Mr Buhari to power.

It was the first time that an opposition party had defeated an incumbent but it showed Mr Tinubu how to tread the complex path to the presidency.

Yet Mr Tinubu, a southern Muslim, took a risk in his own bid. Instead of choosing a running mate from one of the Christian minorities in the north that would have ticked the boxes in the deft balancing act usually needed in Nigeria, he picked a northern Muslim.

He did not want to alienate the huge Muslim voting bloc in the north – though he did draw the ire of most Christians by having a Muslim-Muslim ticket.

Mr Tinubu's main opponents have vowed to challenge his victory, alleging that the inability of Inec officials to upload results from polling units was evidence of their bias.

The PDP and Labour Party have now banded together, first jointly walking out of the venue where the results were being announced and then holding two press conferences together.

Their supporters may be wishing they had taken that approach before the election.

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Nigeria election results 2023: Up-to-date results of presidential and parliamentary races

Nigerians cast their votes in Saturday’s general election. They had 18 candidates to choose from for president and people also voted for senators and members of the house of representatives. The BBC is using data provided by Nigeria’s Independent National Electoral Commission (Inec) to tally the results.

Nigeria presidential results 2023

To win in the first round, a candidate must have the largest number of votes nationwide and at least 25% of the votes in two-thirds of the 36 states and Federal Capital Territory (Abuja)

Last updated: 01/03/2023, 11:50:02 local time (GMT+1)

Final results

Candidates

Votes

36.61%

Bola Tinubu

8,794,726

All Progressives Congress

Votes

8,794,726

At least 25% of state votes

29.07%

Atiku Abubakar

6,984,520

Peoples Democratic Party

Votes

6,984,520

At least 25% of state votes

6.23%

Rabiu Kwankwaso

1,496,687

New Nigeria Peoples Party

Votes

1,496,687

At least 25% of state votes

25.4%

Peter Obi

6,101,533

Labour Party

Votes

6,101,533

At least 25% of state votes

2.7%

Others

648,474

Others

Votes

648,474

At least 25% of state votes

Nigeria presidential results 2023

To win in the first round, a candidate must have the largest number of votes nationwide and at least 25% of the votes in two-thirds of the 36 states and Federal Capital Territory (Abuja)

Last updated: 01/03/2023, 11:50:02 local time (GMT+1)

Final results

Candidates

Votes

Bola Tinubu

NaN%

Bola Tinubu

8,794,726

All Progressives Congress

Votes

8,794,726

At least 25% of state votes

Atiku Abubakar

NaN%

Atiku Abubakar

6,984,520

Peoples Democratic Party

Votes

6,984,520

At least 25% of state votes

Rabiu Kwankwaso

NaN%

Rabiu Kwankwaso

1,496,687

New Nigeria Peoples Party

Votes

1,496,687

At least 25% of state votes

Peter Obi

NaN%

Peter Obi

6,101,533

Labour Party

Votes

6,101,533

At least 25% of state votes

Others

NaN%

Others

648,474

Others

Votes

648,474

At least 25% of state votes

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Presidential election results by state

All Progressives Congress (APC)

Labour Party (LP)

Peoples Democratic Party (PDP)

Others

New Nigeria Peoples Party (NNPP)

Undeclared

Nigeria
Vote distribution

Candidates
Votes
%

Bola Tinubu

8,794,726

36.61%

Atiku Abubakar

6,984,520

29.07%

Rabiu Kwankwaso

1,496,687

6.23%

Peter Obi

6,101,533

25.4%

Others

648,474

2.7%

Abia
Vote distribution

Candidates
Votes
%

Bola Tinubu

8,914

2.41%

Atiku Abubakar

22,676

6.13%

Rabiu Kwankwaso

1,239

0.33%

Peter Obi

327,095

88.4%

Others

10,113

2.73%

Adamawa
Vote distribution

Candidates
Votes
%

Bola Tinubu

182,881

25.01%

Atiku Abubakar

417,611

57.12%

Rabiu Kwankwaso

8,006

1.1%

Peter Obi

105,648

14.45%

Others

16,994

2.32%

Akwa Ibom
Vote distribution

Candidates
Votes
%

Bola Tinubu

160,620

28.94%

Atiku Abubakar

214,012

38.55%

Rabiu Kwankwaso

7,796

1.4%

Peter Obi

132,683

23.9%

Others

39,978

7.2%

Anambra
Vote distribution

Candidates
Votes
%

Bola Tinubu

5,111

0.83%

Atiku Abubakar

9,036

1.47%

Rabiu Kwankwaso

1,967

0.32%

Peter Obi

584,621

95.24%

Others

13,126

2.14%

Bauchi
Vote distribution

Candidates
Votes
%

Bola Tinubu

316,694

37.1%

Atiku Abubakar

426,607

49.98%

Rabiu Kwankwaso

72,103

8.45%

Peter Obi

27,373

3.21%

Others

10,739

1.26%

Bayelsa
Vote distribution

Candidates
Votes
%

Bola Tinubu

42,572

25.75%

Atiku Abubakar

68,818

41.63%

Rabiu Kwankwaso

540

0.33%

Peter Obi

49,975

30.23%

Others

3,420

2.07%

Benue
Vote distribution

Candidates
Votes
%

Bola Tinubu

310468

40.32%

Atiku Abubakar

130,081

16.89%

Rabiu Kwankwaso

4,740

0.62%

Peter Obi

308,372

40.04%

Others

16,414

2.13%

Borno
Vote distribution

Candidates
Votes
%

Bola Tinubu

252,282

54.22%

Atiku Abubakar

190,921

41.03%

Rabiu Kwankwaso

4,626

0.99%

Peter Obi

7,205

1.55%

Others

10,253

2.2%

Cross River
Vote distribution

Candidates
Votes
%

Bola Tinubu

130,520

31.3%

Atiku Abubakar

95,425

22.89%

Rabiu Kwankwaso

1,644

0.39%

Peter Obi

179,917

43.15%

Others

9,462

2.27%

Delta
Vote distribution

Candidates
Votes
%

Bola Tinubu

90,183

14.66%

Atiku Abubakar

161,600

26.26%

Rabiu Kwankwaso

3,122

0.51%

Peter Obi

341,866

55.56%

Others

18,570

3.02%

Ebonyi
Vote distribution

Candidates
Votes
%

Bola Tinubu

42,402

13.03%

Atiku Abubakar

13,503

4.15%

Rabiu Kwankwaso

1,661

0.51%

Peter Obi

259,738

79.83%

Others

8,047

2.47%

Edo
Vote distribution

Candidates
Votes
%

Bola Tinubu

144,471

24.85%

Atiku Abubakar

89,585

15.41%

Rabiu Kwankwaso

2,743

0.47%

Peter Obi

331,163

56.97%

Others

13,304

2.29%

Ekiti
Vote distribution

Candidates
Votes
%

Bola Tinubu

201,494

65.38%

Atiku Abubakar

89,554

29.06%

Rabiu Kwankwaso

264

0.09%

Peter Obi

11,397

3.7%

Others

5,462

1.77%

Enugu
Vote distribution

Candidates
Votes
%

Bola Tinubu

4,772

1.05%

Atiku Abubakar

15,749

3.45%

Rabiu Kwankwaso

1,808

0.4%

Peter Obi

428,640

93.91%

Others

5,455

1.2%

Gombe
Vote distribution

Candidates
Votes
%

Bola Tinubu

146,977

28.82%

Atiku Abubakar

319,123

62.57%

Rabiu Kwankwaso

10,520

2.06%

Peter Obi

26,160

5.13%

Others

7263

1.42%

Imo
Vote distribution

Candidates
Votes
%

Bola Tinubu

66,406

14.21%

Atiku Abubakar

30,234

6.47%

Rabiu Kwankwaso

1,552

0.33%

Peter Obi

360,495

77.13%

Others

8693

1.86%

Jigawa
Vote distribution

Candidates
Votes
%

Bola Tinubu

421,390

45.78%

Atiku Abubakar

386,587

42%

Rabiu Kwankwaso

98,234

10.67%

Peter Obi

1,889

0.21%

Others

12,431

1.35%

Kaduna
Vote distribution

Candidates
Votes
%

Bola Tinubu

399,293

29.36%

Atiku Abubakar

554,360

40.76%

Rabiu Kwankwaso

92,969

6.84%

Peter Obi

294,494

21.65%

Others

19,037

1.4%

Kano
Vote distribution

Candidates
Votes
%

Bola Tinubu

517,341

30.4%

Atiku Abubakar

131,716

7.74%

Rabiu Kwankwaso

997,279

58.59%

Peter Obi

28,513

1.68%

Others

27,156

1.6%

Katsina
Vote distribution

Candidates
Votes
%

Bola Tinubu

482,283

45.56%

Atiku Abubakar

489,045

46.19%

Rabiu Kwankwaso

69,386

6.55%

Peter Obi

6,376

0.6%

Others

11,583

1.09%

Kebbi
Vote distribution

Candidates
Votes
%

Bola Tinubu

248,088

44.34%

Atiku Abubakar

285,175

50.97%

Rabiu Kwankwaso

5,038

0.9%

Peter Obi

10,682

1.91%

Others

10,539

1.88%

Kogi
Vote distribution

Candidates
Votes
%

Bola Tinubu

240,751

52.7%

Atiku Abubakar

145,104

31.77%

Rabiu Kwankwaso

4,238

0.93%

Peter Obi

56,217

12.31%

Others

10,480

2.29%

Kwara
Vote distribution

Candidates
Votes
%

Bola Tinubu

263,572

56.08%

Atiku Abubakar

136,909

29.13%

Rabiu Kwankwaso

3,141

0.67%

Peter Obi

31,166

6.63%

Others

35,183

7.49%

Lagos
Vote distribution

Candidates
Votes
%

Bola Tinubu

572,606

45.04%

Atiku Abubakar

75,750

5.96%

Rabiu Kwankwaso

8,442

0.66%

Peter Obi

582,454

45.81%

Others

32,199

2.53%

Nasarawa
Vote distribution

Candidates
Votes
%

Bola Tinubu

172,922

32%

Atiku Abubakar

147,093

27.22%

Rabiu Kwankwaso

12,715

2.35%

Peter Obi

191,361

35.41%

Others

16,299

3.02%

Niger
Vote distribution

Candidates
Votes
%

Bola Tinubu

375,183

47.09%

Atiku Abubakar

284,898

35.76%

Rabiu Kwankwaso

21,836

2.74%

Peter Obi

80452

10.1%

Others

34,299

4.31%

Ogun
Vote distribution

Candidates
Votes
%

Bola Tinubu

341,554

58.88%

Atiku Abubakar

123,831

21.35%

Rabiu Kwankwaso

2,200

0.38%

Peter Obi

85,829

14.79%

Others

26,710

4.6%

Ondo
Vote distribution

Candidates
Votes
%

Bola Tinubu

369,924

67.5%

Atiku Abubakar

115,463

21.07%

Rabiu Kwankwaso

930

0.17%

Peter Obi

44,405

8.1%

Others

17,341

3.16%

Osun
Vote distribution

Candidates
Votes
%

Bola Tinubu

343945

46.91%

Atiku Abubakar

354366

48.33%

Rabiu Kwankwaso

713

0.1%

Peter Obi

23283

3.18%

Others

10,896

1.49%

Oyo
Vote distribution

Candidates
Votes
%

Bola Tinubu

449,884

55.58%

Atiku Abubakar

182,977

22.6%

Rabiu Kwankwaso

4,095

0.51%

Peter Obi

99,110

12.24%

Others

73,419

9.07%

Plateau
Vote distribution

Candidates
Votes
%

Bola Tinubu

307,195

28.23%

Atiku Abubakar

243,808

22.41%

Rabiu Kwankwaso

8,869

0.82%

Peter Obi

466,272

42.85%

Others

62,026

5.7%

Rivers
Vote distribution

Candidates
Votes
%

Bola Tinubu

231,591

44.23%

Atiku Abubakar

88,468

16.89%

Rabiu Kwankwaso

1,322

0.25%

Peter Obi

175,071

33.43%

Others

27,199

5.19%

Sokoto
Vote distribution

Candidates
Votes
%

Bola Tinubu

285,444

48.64%

Atiku Abubakar

288,679

49.19%

Rabiu Kwankwaso

1,300

0.22%

Peter Obi

6,568

1.12%

Others

4,884

0.83%

Taraba
Vote distribution

Candidates
Votes
%

Bola Tinubu

135,165

27.07%

Atiku Abubakar

189,017

37.85%

Rabiu Kwankwaso

12,818

2.57%

Peter Obi

146,315

29.3%

Others

16,043

3.21%

Yobe
Vote distribution

Candidates
Votes
%

Bola Tinubu

151,459

40.03%

Atiku Abubakar

198,567

52.48%

Rabiu Kwankwaso

18,270

4.83%

Peter Obi

2,406

0.64%

Others

7,695

2.03%

Zamfara
Vote distribution

Candidates
Votes
%

Bola Tinubu

298,396

59.33%

Atiku Abubakar

193,978

38.57%

Rabiu Kwankwaso

4,044

0.8%

Peter Obi

1,660

0.33%

Others

4,845

0.96%

Abuja
Vote distribution

Candidates
Votes
%

Bola Tinubu

90,902

19.76%

Atiku Abubakar

74194

16.13%

Rabiu Kwankwaso

4,517

0.98%

Peter Obi

281717

61.23%

Others

8,741

1.9%

Presidential election results by state

Last updated: 01/03/2023, 11:50:02 local time (GMT+1)

Click on map to see results in detail

All Progressives Congress (APC)
Labour Party (LP)

Peoples Democratic Party (PDP)
Others

New Nigeria Peoples Party (NNPP)
Undeclared

Reset
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Select a state

Vote distribution

Candidates
Votes
%

Bola Tinubu

NaN%

Atiku Abubakar

NaN%

Rabiu Kwankwaso

NaN%

Peter Obi

NaN%

Others

NaN%

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Senate results by party

Last updated: 01/03/2023, 11:50:02 local time (GMT+1)

Party	Seats
All Progressives Congress	49
Peoples Democratic Party	28
New Nigeria Peoples Party	2
Labour Party	6
Others	4
Undeclared	20

Source: Independent National Electoral Commission

House of Representatives results by party

Last updated: 01/03/2023, 11:50:02 local time (GMT+1)

Party	Seats
All Progressives Congress	37
Peoples Democratic Party	14
New Nigeria Peoples Party	11
Labour Party	12
Others	0
Undeclared	286

Source: Independent National Electoral Commission

Credits

Designers: Millicent Wachira and Olaniyi Adebimpe; Visual Artists: Mayowa Alabi and George Wafula: Data Journalists: Yusuf Akinpelu and Brian Osweta; Developers; Boaz Ochieng, Marcos Gurgel, Ayu Widyaningsih Idjajaand and David Ayoola; Project Lead: Dorothy Otieno.